ZHOU Bo-Tao
.2012.Multi-model projection of the interannual relationship between spring Hadley circulation and East Asian summer circulation under global warming.Chinese Journal Of Geophysics,55(11): 3517-3526,doi: 10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.11.001
Multi-model projection of the interannual relationship between spring Hadley circulation and East Asian summer circulation under global warming
ZHOU Bo-Tao1,2
1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081,China; 2. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Abstract:Observations indicate that spring Hadley circulation is tightly linked to East Asian summer circulations and precipitation on the interannual timescale. Whether does such a relationship as in the observation tend to change under the background of global warming in the future? To answer this question, five climate models (GFDL_CM2_0,GFDL_CM2_1,IAP_FGOALS_1.0g,NCAR_CCSM,UKMO_HADCM3), which can well reproduce the observed interannual variability of spring Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and its linkage to East Asian summer atmospheric circulations and precipitation are firstly chosen based on overall assessment of models' simulation ability. Then, the potential change of the interannual variability of spring Hadley circulation and its interannual connection with East Asian summer circulations and precipitation under the A1B scenario are projected by using the outputs of these five climate models. To facilitate quantitative estimation of their change, five indices are exploited in this study. The Northern Hemispheric Hadley circulation index (HCI) is defined as the maximum value of the zonal mean mass stream function occurring within the latitudinal zone of 0°—30°N, and the western Pacific subtropical high index (WPSHI) as the 850 hPa geopotential height anomalies averaged over the region (10°N—30°N,110°E—150°E). The difference of zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa between the region (10°N—20°N,100°E—150°E) and (25°N—35°N,100°E—150°E) and that at 200 hPa between the region (25°N—35°N,80°E—150°E) and (40°N—50°N,80°E—150°E) are used to define the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) and the East Asian Jet index (EAJI), respectively. The East Asian rainfall index is represented by mean precipitation over the region (27°N—32°N,110°E—130°E). The multi-model ensemble (MME) results show that the interannual variability of the Northern Hemispheric Hadley circulation in spring tends to decrease by 23% in the late 21st century (2070—2099) compared to the late 20th century (1970—1999). Concurrent with the decreased interannual variability of spring Hadley circulation, its linkage to summer western Pacific subtropical high and East Asian summer monsoon is also projected to be weakened. The correlation coefficients between spring HCI and summer WPSHI (EASMI) decrease from 0.44 (-0.46) in the late 20th century to 0.19 (-0.15) in the late 21st century. Such a change can be simulated consistently by individual models. In addition, the MME results suggest that the association of spring Hadley circulation with summer East Asian jet and precipitation will also be weakened. However, there are discrepancies in the change of their relationship between individual models.
[1] Bjerknes J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1969, 97(3): 163-172. [2] Oort A H, Peixóto J P. Global angular momentum and energy balance requirements from observations. Adv. Geophys., 1983, 25: 355-490. [3] 周波涛, 王会军, 崔绚. Hadley环流与北太平洋涛动的显著关系. 地球物理学报, 2008, 51(4): 999-1006. Zhou B T, Wang H J, Cui X. Significant relationship between Hadley circulation and North Pacific oscillation. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008, 51(4): 999-1006. [4] Chang E K M. The influence of Hadley circulation intensity changes on extratropical climate in an idealized model. J. Atmos. Sci., 1995, 52(11): 2006- 2024. [5] Hou A Y. Hadley circulation as a modulator of the extratropical climate. J. Atmos. Sci., 1998, 55(14): 2437-2457. [6] Wang C Z. Atmospheric circulation cells associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Clim., 2002, 15(4): 399-419. [7] 周波涛, 王会军. Hadley环流变化与白令海海冰异常的关系. 科学通报, 2007, 52(18): 2194-2198. Zhou B T, Wang H J. Relationship between Hadley circulation and sea ice extent in the Bering Sea. Chinese Sci. Bull., 2008, 53(3): 444-449. [8] 范可. 南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系. 地球物理学报, 2006, 49(3): 672-679. Fan K. Atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere and summer rainfall over Yangtze River Valley. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49(3): 672-679. [9] 范可, 王会军, Choi Y J. 一个长江中下游夏季降水的物理统计预测模型. 科学通报, 2007, 52(24): 2900-2905. Fan K, Wang H J, Choi Y J. A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze Valley summer rainfall. Chinese Sci. Bull., 2008, 53(4): 602-609. [10] Li C Y. Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino events. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 1990, 7(1): 36-46. [11] Zhou B T, Wang H J. Relationship between the boreal spring Hadley circulation and the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley. J. Geophys. Res., 2006, 111: D16109, doi: 10.1029/2005JD007006. [12] 周波涛, 崔绚. 春季Hadley环流与长江流域夏季降水关系的数值模拟. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(2): 182-188. Zhou B T, Cui X. Modeling the relationship between spring Hadley circulation and the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 2008, 13(2): 182-188. [13] Zhou B T, Cui X. Hadley circulation signal in the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 2008, 113: D16107, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009156. [14] 周波涛, 崔绚. Hadley环流异常对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋频数影响的数值模拟试验. 地球物理学报, 2009, 52(12): 2958-2963. Zhou B T, Cui X. Modeling the influence of spring Hadley circulation on the summer tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2009, 52(12): 2958-2963. [15] Quan X W, Diaz H F, Hoerling M P. Change of the tropical Hadley cell since 1950. // Diaz H F, Bradley R S. The Hadley Circulation: Past, Present, and Future. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004: 85-120. [16] Tanaka H L, Ishizaki N, Kitoh A. Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere. Tellus, 2004, 56A(3): 250-269. [17] 周波涛, 王会军. Hadley环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与热带海温的关系. 地球物理学报, 2006, 49(5): 1271-1278. Zhou B T, Wang H J. Interannual and interdecadal variations of the Hadley circulation and its connection with tropical sea surface temperature. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49(5): 1271-1278. [18] Kobayashi C, Maeda S. Phase shift of the seasonal cycle in the Hadley Circulation in recent decades. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, 33: L22703, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027682. [19] Hu Y, Fu Q. Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2007, 7: 5229-5236. [20] Seidel D J, Randel W J. Recent widening of the tropical belt: Evidence from tropopause observations. J. Geophys. Res., 2007, 112: D20113, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008861. [21] Tanaka H L, Ishizaki N, Nohara D. Intercomparison of the intensities and trends of Hadley, Walker and monsoon circulations in the global warming projections. SOLA, 2005, 1: 77-80. [22] Lu J, Vecchi G A, Reichler T. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2007, 34: L06805, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028443. [23] 姜大膀, 张颖, 孙建奇. 中国地区1~3 ℃变暖的集合预估分析. 科学通报, 2009, 54(24): 3870-3877. Jiang D B, Zhang Y, Sun J Q. Ensemble projection of 1~3 ℃ warming in China. Chinese Sci. Bull., 2009, 54(18): 3326-3334. [24] Oort A H, Yienger J J. Observed interannual variability in the Hadley circulation and its connection to ENSO. J. Clim., 1996, 9(11): 2751-2767. [25] Lu R Y. Interannual variability of the summertime North Pacific subtropical high and its relation to atmospheric convection over the warm pool. J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn., 2001, 79(3): 771-783. [26] 张庆云, 陶诗言, 陈烈庭. 东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流. 气象学报, 2003, 61(5): 559-567. Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y, Chen L T. The interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia. Acta Meteorol. Sin. (in Chinese), 2003, 61(5): 559-567. [27] Mitas C M, Clement A. Recent behavior of the Hadley cell and tropical thermodynamics in climate models and reanalyses. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, 33: L01810, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024406. [28] Gastineau G, Treut H L, Li L. Hadley circulation changes under global warming conditions indicated by coupled climate models. Tellus, 2008, 60(5): 863-884. [29] Frierson D M W. Robust increases in midlatitude static stability in simulations of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, 33: L24816, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027504. [30] Eyring V, Waugh D W, Bodeker G E, et al. Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res., 2007, 112: D16303, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008332.