ZHAO WenTao,
LUO Gang,
JIN XiBo et al
.2022.The evaluation of synthetic seismic catalog and its application in northeastern Tibetan Plateau Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),65(1): 67-78,doi: 10.6038/cjg2022P0520
The evaluation of synthetic seismic catalog and its application in northeastern Tibetan Plateau
ZHAO WenTao1, LUO Gang, JIN XiBo5, SUN YunQiang
1. School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China 2. Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China 3. College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
Abstract：It is an important problem in numerical earthquake prediction how the paleoseismic data are used to verify the accuracy of long-term synthetic seismic catalogs obtained from numerical modeling. To investigate this problem,we develop the mean absolute error method and the cosine similarity method to calculate the matching degree between the synthetic seismic catalogs and the paleoseismic sequence data. We apply these methods to the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,and obtain the synthetic seismic catalogs that match well with the paleoseismic sequence data. From the well-matched catalogs,we calculate the probability of earthquake migration on the four major faults after one big earthquake occurring on the Haiyuan fault or Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault. The results in this study show that these two methods can be applied to evaluate the matching degree between the synthetic seismic catalogs and the paleoseismic sequence data. The results of probability of earthquake migration from the well-matched catalogs are better than those from the raw catalogs, or they are closer to those from the paleoseismic data. Our calculation shows that when a big earthquake occurs on the Haiyuan fault, the probability of the next big earthquake on the Haiyuan fault is the highest, about 47%, and that on the Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault is the second highest,about 23%~27%. This paper makes an investigation and exploration for evaluating the accuracy of the long-term synthetic seismic catalogs calculated by the geodynamic numerical modeling and can provide insights into regional numerical earthquake prediction.
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