DONG PeiYu,
SHI YaoLin,
CHENG HuiHong et al
.2020.Numerical analysis of the future seismic hazards in the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding area Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),63(3): 1155-1169,doi: 10.6038/cjg2020N0310
Numerical analysis of the future seismic hazards in the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding area
DONG PeiYu1,2, SHI YaoLin2, CHENG HuiHong2, QIAO XueJun1
1. Key Laboratory of Earthquake Geodesy, Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Wuhan 430071, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract：It's necessary to know the regional initial tectonic stress for the numerical analysis of the medium- and long-term seismic hazard, however, it is still not possible to directly observe the tectonic stress data in the deep seismogenic zone at present. In this study, firstly, we inversely estimated a possible regional initial stress in the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding area, based on the Coulomb-Mohr rupture criterion and the regional historical strong earthquakes information. Secondly, we orderly reproduced the historical strong earthquakes occurred in this region, by using the calculated tectonic loading stress rate and stress disturbance value caused by the historical strong earthquakes. However, in this study, the initial tectonic stress value still can't be accurately determined, we can only get the constrained limit value, which means the estimated initial stress is only a possible value in the reasonable range. Therefore, we generated a large number of independent random different possible initial values within the reasonable range by using the Monte Carlo random method, which all can ensure the historical strong earthquakes orderly occur, and the stress evolution will be different in the future. Finally, we investigated the future seismic hazard situation of the thousands of models with the mathematical method. And then, we got the probability distribution map of possible future seismic risk in the region. Our preliminary results show that there is a higher probability of seismic risk in the Bayan Har Block boundary and the Xianshuihe fault zone.
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