XUE Yan,
LIU Jie,
SONG ZhiPing et al
.2018.On the universality and mechanism interpretation of the seismicity characteristics before the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.Chinese Journal Of Geophysics,61(5): 1891-1906,doi: 10.6038/cjg2018M0164
汶川地震前地震活动特征的普遍性及其机理探讨
薛艳, 刘杰, 宋治平, 黎明晓
中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045
On the universality and mechanism interpretation of the seismicity characteristics before the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake
XUE Yan, LIU Jie, SONG ZhiPing, LI MingXiao
China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China
Abstract:The remarkable seismicity anomalies before the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake are as follows. An active strengthening area, namely a ring distribution with M≥5.5 events appeared from the northern part of Yunnan to the border area of Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan provinces during the time of 1970 to 2008. A background gap with M≥5.0 earthquakes was formed around the Longmen Shan fault zone from 1970 to 1999. The Wenchuan earthquake occurred in the background gap which was in the active strengthening area. From 2001 to 2007, the seismogenic gap with ML≥4.0 shocks was formed. While one year prior to the Wenchuan earthquake, several shocks with ML4.0~5.0 occurred in the seismogenic gap and its two ends, and the gap was broken. The above seismicity patterns, such as the active strengthening area, background gap and seimogenic gap, appeared before the Whenchuan earthquake are a universal phenomenon. For contrastive analysis, we study the seismicity anomalies of 14 great earthquakes in a global area since 2001, in which 4 of them are MS≥7.8 events in China mainland and adjacent areas, and the other 10 are MW≥8.0 shocks. The statistical characteristics are stated below. The length of the active strengthening area is 850~1800 km and its duration time is 13-38 years. The logarithm of the long axis of the active strengthening area is correlated with the magnitude of the main shocks in a positive way. The ratio of the scale of the strengthening area to the aftershock area is 2.3~7.7 and the logarithm of the ratio is correlated with the main shock in a negative way. The long axis of the background gaps is 300~1100 km and the duration time is 10-32 years. There is a positive correlation between the logarithm of the long axis of the background gaps and the magnitude of the main shock. The length of the seismogenic gaps is 370~780 km, and the duration time of it is 1.2-7.0 years. The logarithm of the long axis of seismogenic gaps is correlated with the magnitude of the main shock in a positive way. For intraplate earthquakes, the minimum magnitude of the strengthening area is M5.0 or M5.5, the minimum magnitudes of the background gap and the seimogenic gap are M5.0 and M4.0, respectively. While for interplate earthquakes, the minimum magnitudes of the strengthening area and the background gap are M6.0 or M6.5, respectively, and the minimum magnitude of the seismogenic gap is M5.0 or M5.5. Based on the strong body seimogenic model, the ring distribution of the strengthening area is due to that the rupture strength of the source body is higher than that of the surrounding medium. During the earthquake preparing process, the range and strength of the body strain are gradually increasing and decreasing. This is the reason for the evolution of the three stages of the active strengthening area. The linear relation between the logarithm of the long axis of the strengthening area and the main shock magnitude, and that between the logarithm of the ratio of the length of the strengthening area to aftershock area can be deduced from the elastic body source theory.
An Z H, Du X B, Fan Y Y, et al. 2011. A study of the electric field before the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake of 2008 using both space-based and ground-based observational data.Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 54(11): 2876-2884, Doi: 10.3696/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.11.017. Bock Y L, Prawirodirdjo J F, Genrich J F, et al. 2003. Crustal motion in Indonesia from Global Positioning System measurements.J. Geophys.Res., 108(B8): 2367, doi 10.1029/2001JB000324. Chen L D, Fu H, Zhao X Y. 2010. Comparative study of M≥5 seismic activities before some large earthquakes. Earthquake (in Chinese), 29(1): 1-14. Cheng W Z, Zhang Y J, Yuan X. 2011. Research on regional stress field dynamics before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake. Earthquake Research in China, (in Chinese), 27(3):215-225. Dobrovolsku I P, Zubkov S I, Miacrikin V I.1979. Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones. Pageoph, 117 (1979):1025-1044. Du F, Wen X Z, Zhang P Z, et al. 2009. Interseismic deformation across the Longmenshan fault zone before the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquakes. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 52(11):2729-2738, doi:10.3969/j.issn. 0001-5733.2009.11.007. Feng M, Zhang J Z, An M J. 2013.Tectonic stress changes around the epicenter before and after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 35(4):701-720. Gutenberg B, Richter C F. 1956. Magnitude and energy of earthquakes.Ann Geofis, 9: 1-15. Li Y E, Chen X Z, Wang H X. 2012. Temporal and spatial variation of apparent stress in Sinch area before the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. Earthquake (in Chinese), 32(4): 113-122. Liao H, Xu R, Chen W F, et al. 2013. Property variation and statistical analysis of Sichuan GPS time series before and after Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 56(4):1237-1245,doi.10.6038/cjg20130418. Liu P X, Huang D Y, Zhou S K, et al. 1989. Background and its application in earthquake prediction. Collections on practical methods for earthquake prediction (in Chinese). Beijing: Academic Books and Periodicals Press:41-55. Lu Y Z, Chen Z L, Wang B Q, et al. 1985. Seismological methods for earthquake prediction (in Chinese). Beijing: Seimological Press. Lu Y Z, Shen J W, Song J G.1982. Seismogenic gap and approaching earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinaca (in Chinese), 4(4): 327-336. Luo G F, Yang M Z, Ma H Q. 2011. Intermediate and short-term anomalies of seismic activity energy field before the Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake. Earthquake (in Chinese), 31(3):135-142. Ma X X, Li Z, Chen H R, et al. 2014. Analysis on ionospheric perturbation of TEC and NmF2 based on GPS and COSMIC data before and after the Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 57(8):2415-2422, doi:10.6038/cjg20140803. Mei S R, Xue Y, Song Z P. 1996a.Ring patterns and regulation of seismicity before great earthquakes in China Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),18(4): 413-419. Mei S R, Xue Y, Song Z P. 2009.Anomalous seismic characteristics before Wenchuan M8.0 and Kunlunshan M8.1 eartquakes and their implications. Earthquake (in Chinese), 29(1): 1-14. Mei S R. 1995. On the physical model of earthquake precursor fields and the mechanism of precursors time-space (Ⅰ). Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),17(3):273-282. Mei S R.1960.Seismicity in China. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese),9(1):1-19. Mei S R.1996b.On the physical model of earthquake precursor fields and the mechanism of precursors time-space (Ⅲ). Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),18(2):170-178. Michel G W, Yu Y Q, Zhu S Y, et al. 2001. Crustal motion and block behaviour in SE-Asia from GPS measurements.Earth Planet. Sci.Lett. 187:239-244. Mogi K,1988. Downward migration of seismic activity prior to some great shallow earthquakes in Japanese subduction zone—A possible intermediate-term precursor, PAGEOF, 126: 447-463. Mogi K. 1987. Recent seismic activity in the Tokai(Japan) region where a large earthquake is expected in the near future. Tectonophysics, 138:255-268. Mogi K. 1988. Some feature of recent seismic activity in and near Japan (2), Activity before and after great earthquakes. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst, Tokyo Univ, 47: 395-417. Seismological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Crustal Stress Institute of China Earthquake Administration. 1999. East Kunlun Active Fault Zone (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press. Song Z P, Mei S R, Yin X C. 1999. Seismicity increase areas before strong earthqukes and their mechanismresearch. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese), 21(3): 271-277. Song Z P, Yin X C, Mei S R.2000. Theoretical analysis on the temporal and spatial evolution of strain field of the rheological model. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),22(5): 491-500. Song Z P, Zhang G M, Liu J, et al. 2012. Global Earthquake Catalog (in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1-450. Su Y J, Li Z H, Zhao X Y, et al. 2014.Research on the global earthquake sequence with M≥7.0. (in Chinese), Kunming:Yunnan University Press. Wang W, Huang B S, Lu Y Z, et al. 1989.Application of seismogenic gap method to earthquake prediction and its efficiency research. Collections on practical methods for earthquake prediction (in Chinese). Beijing: Academic Books and Periodicals Press. 1-24. Wei F S, Xu Z H, Wang S H, et al. 2009. Detection capability of earthquake in China mainland. Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research (in Chinese), 30(5):26-33. Wen X Z, Zhang P Z, Du F, et al. 2009. The background of historical and modern seismic activities of the occurrence of the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan, Sichuan, earthquake. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 52(2): 444 -454. Wu K T, Jiao Y B, Lü P L, et al.1990. Conspectus of Earthquake Sequences (in Chinese). Beijing: Peking University Press. 97-114. Xie T, Du X B, Liu J, et al. 2013. Wavelet power spectrum analysis of the electromagnetic signals of Wenchuan MS8.0 and Haidi MW7.3 earthquakes. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese), 35(1): 61-71. Xu S Y, Wang B, Zhao J M, et al.1997. An experimental study of fractural features of concrete samples containing hard inclusions.Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),19(1):79-85. Xu X W, Chen W B, Yu G H, et al. 2002. Charateristic features of the surface ruptures of the Hoh Sai Hu(Kunlunshan) earthquake (MS8.1), Northern Tibetan Plateau, China. Seismology and Geology(in Chinese), 24(1):1-17. Xu X W, Wen X Z, Ye J Q, et al.2008.The MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake surface ruptures and its seismogenic structure. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 30(3): 597-629. Xu X W, Zhang P Z, Wen X Z, et al. 2005.Features of active tectonics and recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes in the western Sichuan province and its adjacent regions. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 27(3): 446-461. Xue Y, Liu J, Li G.2011. Characteristics of seismic activity before 27 February 2010 Chile MW8.8 earthquake.Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese), 33(3): 292-303. Xue Y, Liu J, Liu S Q, et al. 2015. Seismic activity characteristcis of the 2015 MS8.1 and MS7.5 Nepal earthquqke., Chin Sci Bull (in Chinese), 60: 3617-3626. Xue Y, Liu J, Mei S R, et al. 2009. Characteristics of seismic activity before 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake,Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese), 31(6):12-25. Xue Y, Song Z P, Mei S R, et al. 2008. Characteristics of seismic activity before several large Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquakes.Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese), 30(3): 321-325. Xue Y, Song Z P, Mei S Y. 2005.The charateristics of seismic activity before the devastating earthquake with MW9.0 off the west coast of Northern Sumatra. Earthquake Research in China (in Chinese), 21(3): 311-319. Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P. 2011. Study on critical slowing down phenomenon of radon concentrations in water before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 54(7): 21817-1826, doi: 10.3696/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.07.015. Yi G X, Wen X Z, Xin H, et al. 2011. Distributions of seismicity parameters and seismic apparent stresses on the Longmenshan-Minshan tectonic zone before the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 54(6):1490-1500,doi:3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.06.008. Yin G H, Jiang J X, Shen J. 2006. Summarization on 2003 Altai strong earthquake. Inland Earthquake (in Chinese), 20(2): 183-192. Zhao J, Jiang Z S, Wu Y Q, et al. 2012. Study on fault locking and fault slip deficit of the Longmenshan fault zone before the Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese),55(9): 2963-2972, doi:10.6038 / j. issn. 0001-5733.2012.09.015. Zhu H B. 2010. The semila evolution ofseismicity patterns of strong-moderate earthquakes before about MS8 earthquakes of Qinghai Tibet block. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 53(7): 1611-1621, doi: 10.3969 /j.issn. 0001-5733.2010.07.012. 附中文参考文献 安张辉,杜学彬,范莹莹等. 2011.汶川MS8.0级大震前天基与陆基电场资料联合应用研究.地球物理学报, 54(11): 2876-2884,doi: 10.3696/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.11.017. 陈立德,付虹,赵小艳等. 2010. 汶川等巨震前M≥5地震活动对比研究. 地震, 30(4): 22-31. 程万正,张永久,阮祥. 2011.汶川8.0级地震前区域应力场动态的研究.中国地震, 27(3):215-225. 杜方,闻学泽,张培震等. 2009. 2008年汶川8.0级地震前横跨龙门山断裂带的震间形变. 地球物理学报, 52(11):2729-2738. 冯梅,张纪中,安美建等. 2013. 2008年汶川地震前后震源区构造应力场变化. 地震地质, 35(4): 701-720. 解滔,杜学斌,刘君等. 2013. 汶川MS8.0、海地MW7.3地震电磁信号小波能谱分析. 地震学报, 35(1):61-71. 李艳娥,陈学忠,王恒信. 2012. 汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地震视应力时空变化特征.地震, 32(4): 113-122. 廖华,徐锐,陈维锋等. 2013. 汶川地震前后四川区域GPS时序特征演变及统计分析. 地球物理学报, 56(4):1237-1245. 刘蒲雄,黄德瑜,周胜奎等. 1989.背景空区及其在地震预报中的应用, 地震预报实用化方法研究文集(地震学专辑). 北京: 学术书刊出版社, 41-55. 陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉等. 1985. 地震预报的地震学方法. 北京:地震出版社. 陆远忠,沈建文, 宋俊高. 1982.孕震空区与逼近地震.地震学报, 4(4):327-336. 罗国富,杨明芝,马禾青等. 2011. 汶川8.0级地震前地震活动能量场中短期异常.地震,31(3): 135-142. 马新欣,林湛,陈化然等. 2014.基于GPS和COSMIC数据分析汶川地震TEC和NMF2扰动. 地球物理学报, 57(8):2415-2422,doi:10.6038/cjg20140803. 梅世蓉. 1995. 地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(一)——坚固体孕震模式的由来与证据.地震学报, 17(3):273- 282. 梅世蓉,宋治平,薛艳. 1996a. 中国巨大地震前地震活动环形分布图象与规律.地震学报, 8(4):413-419. 梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平. 2009. 汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动性异常特征与启示. 地震,29(1): 1-14. 梅世蓉. 1960.中国的地震活动性.地球物理学报, 9(1): 1-19. 梅世蓉. 1996b.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(三)——强震孕育时地震活动与地壳形变场异常及机制. 地震学报, 18(2):170-178. 青海省地震局, 1999.中国地震局地壳应力研究所.东昆仑断裂带.北京: 地震出版社. 宋治平, 梅世蓉, 尹祥础. 1999.强大地震前地震活动增强区及其力学研究.地震学报, 21(3): 271-277. 宋治平, 尹祥础, 梅世蓉. 2000.包体流变模型体应变场时空演变的理论分析.地震学报, 22(5): 491-500. 宋治平,张国民,刘杰等. 2012,全球地震目录.北京:地震出版社. 1-450. 苏有锦,李忠华,赵小艳等. 2014.全球7级以上地震序列研究. 昆明: 云南大学出版社.1-263. 王炜, 黄冰树, 陆远忠等. 1989.孕震空区方法在地震预报中的应用及其能效研究.地震预报实用化方法研究文集(地震学专辑). 北京: 学术书刊出版社, 1-24. 闻学泽,张培震,杜芳等. 2009. 2008年汶川8.0级地震发生的历史与现今地震活动背景. 地球物理学报, 52(2):444-454. 吴开统,焦远碧,吕培灵等. 1990,地震序列概论. 北京: 北京大学出版社,1-250. 徐锡伟, 闻学泽, 叶建青等. 2008.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造. 地震地质, 30(3): 597-629. 徐锡伟,陈文彬,于贵华等.2002. 2001年11月14日昆仑山库赛湖地震(MS8.1)地表破裂带的基本特征.地震地质, 24(1):1-17. 徐锡伟,张培震,闻学泽等. 2005.川西及其邻近地区活动构造基本特征与强震复发模型.地震地质, 27(3): 446-461. 许昭永,王彬,赵晋明等,1997.含硬包体试样破裂特征的实验研究,地震学报,19(1):79-85. 薛艳, 宋治平, 梅世蓉等. 2008.印尼苏门答腊几次大震前的地震活动异常特征.地震学报, 30(3):321-325. 薛艳,刘杰, 李纲. 2011. 2010年2月27日智利MW8.8地震前全球地震活动特征分析. 地震学报, 33(3): 292- 303. 薛艳,刘杰,刘双庆等. 2015. 2015年尼泊尔MS8.1与MS7.5级地震活动特征. 科学通报,60: 3617-3626. 薛艳,刘杰, 梅世蓉等. 2009.汶川8.0级地震前地震活动异常特征. 地震学报, 31(6):12-25. 薛艳,宋治平,梅世蓉. 2005.印尼苏门答腊9.0级地震前地震活动图像异常特征研究.中国地震, 21(3): 311-319. 晏锐,蒋长胜,张浪平. 2011.汶川8.0级地震前水氡浓度的临界慢化现象研究. 地球物理学报,54(7):1817-1826, doi: 10.3696/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.07.015. 易桂喜, 闻学泽, 辛华等. 2011. 2008年汶川MS8.0地震前龙门山 —岷山构造带的地震活动性参数与地震视应力分布. 地球物理学报, 54(6): 1490-1500, doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.06.008. 尹光华,蒋靖祥,沈军. 2006. 2003年阿尔泰强烈地震综述.内陆地震,20(2):183-192. 赵静,江在森,武艳强等. 2012.汶川地震前龙门山断裂带闭锁成都和滑动亏损分布研究. 地球物理学报, 55(9):2963-2972.doi:10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.09.015. 朱红彬. 2010.青藏块体8级左右地震前中强地震活动图像的相似性演化. 地球物理学报, 53(7): 1611-1621,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.07.012.