SONG ChunYan,
MA Jin,
WANG HaiTao et al
.2018.Study on meta-instability stage and instable section of the fault before strong earthquake: Taking western section of Southern Tianshan as an example.Chinese Journal Of Geophysics,61(2): 604-615,doi: 10.6038/cjg2018K0259
Study on meta-instability stage and instable section of the fault before strong earthquake: Taking western section of Southern Tianshan as an example
SONG ChunYan1,2, MA Jin1, WANG HaiTao2, ZHANG LinLin2
1. State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China; 2. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Vrümqi 830011, China
Abstract：We have referred to the fault in meta-instability stage as the meta-instability fault. Meta-instability stage is the last stage of instability. The important scientific problem is to identify this stage and determine the location of earthquake. Based on the characteristics of meta-instability stage which is observed in laboratory experiments, we propose a method for determining the meta-instability fault with MS ≥ 6.8 earthquake:① The accumulation of Benioff strain in tectonic zone supports the occurrence of MS ≥ 6.8 earthquake. ② Find the fault with high strain accumulation where the strain began to release, and the fault is divided into accumulation and release segment. ③ We judge whether the fault in the Meta-instability stage according to the degree of collaborative activity. ④ Whether the Benioff strain is consistent with the accelerating seismic patterns. In this paper, we take the Western section of Southern Tianshan as the study area, use meta-instability fault method for the retrospective research on Wuqia MS6.8 Earthquake on October 5,2008. The results show that the Kazkeaerte fault had these 4 conditions before the mainshock, the prediction has achieved good results. We use this method to study the predictability in the study area, found that the Kalpin fault satisfies the first three conditions. We should pay attention to the seismic activity of Kalpin fault.
Benioff H. 1951. Earthquakes and rock creep:(Part I:Creep characteristics of rocks and the origin of aftershocks). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,41(1):31-62. Ben-Zion Y, Eneva M, Liu Y F. 2003. Large earthquake cycles and intermittent criticality on heterogeneous faults due to evolving stress and seismicity. Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth, 108(B6):2307, doi:10.1029/2002JB002121. Bowman D D, Ouillon G, Samnfis C G, et a1. 1998. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept. Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,103(B10):24359-24372. Brehm D J, Braile L W. 1998. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using precursory events in the New Madrid seismic zone. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,88(2):564-580. Bufe C G, Varnes D J. 1993. Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region. Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth, 98(B6):9871-9883. Bufe C G, Nishenko S P, Varnes D J. 1994. Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the alasksa-aleatian region. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 142(1):83-99. Chen J, Ding G Y, Yin J H, et al. 2001. Late Cenozoic tectonics and seismicity in the southwestern Tianshan, China. Earthquake Research in China (in Chinese), 17(2):134-155. Cheng J W, Ran Y K, Yang X P, et al. 2006. Character of late quaternary activity of the east segment of the front-edge faults of Kalpintag. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 28(2):258-266, 268. Hardebeck J L, Felzer K R, Michael A J. 2008. Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant. Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth, 113(B8):B08310. doi:10.1029/2007JBOO5410. He W Y, Li J H, Qian X L, et al. 2002. Analysis of fault structures in the Kalpin uplift, Tarim basin. Geology in China (in Chinese), 29(1):37-43. Huang Z X, Chen H. 1996. Variation of seismicity in Chinese continent and its relation to tectonic movement. Earthquake Research in China (in Chinese), 12(4):403-410. Jia Q C, Wu C Y, Shen J, et al. 2015. Evidence of left-lateral strike-slip along the Aheqi segment of Maidan fault in southwest Tianshan mountains, China and its latest activity. China Earthquake Engineering Journal (in Chinese), 37(1):221-227. Jiang C S, Wu Z L. 2011. Intermediate-term medium-range Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) prior to the 2010 Yushu MS7.1 earthquake. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 54(6):1501-1510, doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.06.009. Jiang H K, Miao Q Z, Dong X, et al. 2009. Characteristics of Strain Release before M7 Earthquakes in Mainland China. Eaethquake (in Chinese), 29(3):1-11. Kanamori H. 1977. The energy release in great earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 82:2981-2987. M7 Special Working Group. 2012. Study on the Mid-to Long-term Potential of Large Earthquakes on the Chinese Content (in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 259-273. Ma H Q, Luo G F, Wang Y. 2007. Analysis of seismicity in the juncture region of Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces. China Earthquake Engineering Journal (in Chinese),29(4):357-363. Ma H S, Liu J, Zhang G M, et al. 2002. The seismicity research in the subregions of Chinese mainland using strain accumulating and releasing model. Acta Seismological Sinica (in Chinese), 24(6):569-578. Ma J, Liu L Q, Ma S L. 1999. Fault geometry and departure of precursors from epicenter. Earthquake Research in China (in Chinese), 15(2):106-115. Ma J, Sherman S I, Guo Y S. 2012. Identification of meta-instable stress state based on experimental study of evolution of the temperature field during stick-slip instability on a 5° bending fault. Science China Earth Sciences, 55(6):869-881. Ma J, Guo Y S. 2014. Accelerated synergism prior to fault instability:evidence from laboratory experiments and an earthquake case. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 36(3):547-561. Main I G. 1995. Earthquakes as critical phenomena:implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 85(5):1299-1308. Mignan A, King G, Bowman D, et a1. 2006. Seismic activity in the Sumatra-Java region prior to the December 26, 2004 (Mw=9.0~9.3) and March 28, 2005 (Mw=8.7) earthquakes. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 244(3-4):639-654. Min W, Song F M, Han Z J, et al. 2006. The preliminary study on paleoearthquakes along the western segment of kalpintag fault. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 28(2):234-244. Papazachos C B, Scordilis E M, Karakaisis G F, et a1. 2004a. Decelerating preshock seismic deformation in fault regions during critical periods. Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, 36:1-9. Papazachos C B, Karakaisis G F, Savvaidis A S, et al. 2004b. Probabilities of activation of seismic faults in critical regions of the Aegean area. Geophysical Journal International,159(2):679-687. Papazachos C B, Karakaisis G F, Scordilis E M, et a1. 2006. New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release. Tectonophysics, 243(1-4):83-96. Ran Y K, Yang X P, Cheng J W, et al. 2006. Paleoearthquakes along the east section of the range front fault of Kalpintag during late quaternary in Kalpin Structure System, The Southwest Tianshan Mountains. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 28(2):245-257. Shen J, Zhao R B, Li J, et al. 2001. Surveying of the deformed terraces and crust shortening rate in the northwestern Tarim Basin. Chinese Science Bulletin, 46(12):1043-1046. Sornette D, Samm is C G. 1995. Critica1 exponents from renomalization group theory of earthquakes:implications for earthquake prediction. J. Phys. I., 5:607-619. The Team of Studies for the Seismic Prone Regions and Prediction of Seismic Losses in These Regions During 2006-2010. 2007. Studies for the Seismic Prone Regions and Prediction of Seismic Losses in These Regions During 2006-2010 (in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1-296. Tian Q J, Ding G Y, Hao P. 2006. Seismotectonic study on west part of the interaction zone between southern Tianshan and northern tarim. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 28(2):213-223. Varnes D J, Bufe C G. 1996. The cyclic and fractal seismic series preceding an mb 4.8 earthquake on 1980 February 14 near the virgin islands. Geophysical Journal International,124(1):149-158. Wang Q, Ding G Y, Qiao X J, et al. 2000. Research on present crustal deformation in the Southern Tianshan (Jiashi), China by GPS Geodesy. Acta Seismological Sinica (in Chinese), 22(3):263-270, 236. Wang X R, Wang Q. 2010. Further research on the relation between the seismic quiescence and moderate-strong earthquakes in the southern Tianshan seismic belt. Northwestern Seismological Journal (in Chinese), 32(3):279-285. Yang W Z, Ma L. 1999. Seismicity acceleration model and its application to several earthquake region in China. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese), 12(1):35-44. Yang W Z, Vere Jones D, Ma L, et a1. 2000. A method for locating the critical region of a future earthquake using the critical earthquake concept. Earthquake (in Chinese), 20(4):28-38. Yang X P, Rang Y K, Song F M, et al. 2006. The analysis for crust shortening of kalpin thrust tectonic zone, south-western Tianshan, Xinjiang, China. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 28(2):194-204. Zhang G M, Ma H S, Wang H, et al. 2005. Boundaries between active-tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the China mainland. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 48(3):602-610. Zhen M, Lei G L, Huang S Y, et al. 2007. Features of fault structure in southern Margin of West Segment of the South Tianshan, and its control to evolution of the Wushi Sag. Chinese Journal of Geology (in Chinese), 42(4):639-655. 2006-2020 年中国大陆地震危险区与地震灾害损失预测研究组. 2007. 2006-2020年中国大陆地震危险区与地震灾害损失预测研究. 北京:地震出版社, 1-296. M7专项工作组. 2012. 中国大陆大地震中-长期危险性研究. 北京:地震出版社, 259-273. 陈杰, 丁国瑜, 尹金辉等. 2001. 中国西南天山山前的晚新生代构 造与地震活动. 中国地震, 17(2):134-155. 程建武, 冉勇康, 杨晓平等. 2006. 西南天山柯坪塔格前缘断裂带东段晚第四纪活动特征. 地震地质, 28(2):258-266, 268. 邓起东, 冯先岳, 张培震等. 2000. 天山活动构造. 北京:地震出版社. 何文渊, 李江海, 钱祥麟等. 2002. 塔里木盆地柯坪断隆断裂构造分析. 中国地质, 29(1):37-43. 黄忠贤, 陈虹. 1996. 中国大陆地震活动分期及其与构造运动的关系. 中国地震, 12(4):403-410. 贾启超, 吴传勇, 沈军等. 2015. 西南天山迈丹断裂阿合奇段左旋走滑的证据及其最新活动. 地震工程学报, 37(1):221-227. 蒋长胜, 吴忠良. 2011. 2010玉树MS7.1地震前的中长期加速矩释放(AMR)问题. 地球物理学报, 54(6):1501-1510, doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.06.009. 蒋海昆, 苗青壮, 董祥等. 2009. 中国大陆7级强震前中小地震应变释放特征. 地震, 29(3):1-11. 马禾青, 罗国富, 王银. 2007. 藏、青、川、滇交界地区地震活动性分析. 地震工程学报, 29(4):357-363. 马宏生, 刘杰, 张国民等. 2002. 用应变积累释放模型研究中国大陆地块分区地震活动. 地震学报, 24(6):569-578. 马瑾, 刘力强, 马胜利. 1999. 断层几何与前兆偏离. 中国地震, 15(2):106-115. 马瑾, Sherman S I, 郭彦双. 2012. 地震前亚失稳应力状态的识别——以5°拐折断层变形温度场演化的实验为例. 中国科学:地球科学, 42(5):633-645. 马瑾, 郭彦双. 2014. 失稳前断层加速协同化的实验室证据和地震实例. 地震地质, 36(3):547-561. 闵伟, 宋方敏, 韩竹军等. 2006. 柯坪塔格断裂西段古地震初步研究. 地震地质, 28(2):234-244. 邱竞男, 高旭. 1986. 关于本世纪我国地震活动阶段性的讨论. 地震, (6):41-47. 冉勇康, 杨晓平, 程建武等. 2006. 西南天山柯坪推覆构造柯坪塔格山前逆断裂东段晚第四纪的古地震. 地震地质, 28(2):245-257. 沈军, 赵瑞斌, 李军等. 2001. 塔里木盆地西北缘河流阶地变形测量与地壳缩短速率. 科学通报, 46(4):334-338. 田勤俭, 丁国瑜, 郝平. 2006. 南天山及塔里木北缘构造带西段地震构造研究. 地震地质, 28(2):213-223. 王琪, 丁国瑜, 乔学军等. 2000. 用GPS研究南天山(伽师)地区现今地壳变形. 地震学报, 22(3):263-270, 236. 王筱荣, 王琼. 2010. 南天山地震带地震平静与中强震关系再研究. 西北地震学报, 32(3):279-285. 杨文政, 马丽. 1999. 地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用. 地震学报, 21(1):32-41. 杨文政, Vere-Jones D, 马丽等. 2000. 一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法. 地震, 20(4):28-38. 杨晓平, 冉勇康, 宋方敏等. 2006. 西南天山柯坪逆冲推覆构造带的地壳缩短分析. 地震地质, 28(2):194-204. 张国民, 马宏生, 王辉等. 2005. 中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动, 地球物理学报, 48(3):602-610. 郑民, 雷刚林, 黄少英等. 2007. 南天山西段南缘断裂构造特征及对乌什凹陷发育的控制. 地质科学, 42(4):639-655.
| 
